By Jorge Liboreiro
If you’re feeling a crippling sense of anxiety taking over your body and causing doomsday hallucinations, you might not be the only one.
Europe is in an absolute state of nervousness as it watches the American people head to the polls to elect their next president. For decades, the ritual on the other side of the Atlantic was followed with interest, eagerness and even respect. After all, the United States is the oldest democracy in the world and Europe’s closest security ally, granting the tenant of the White House an enlarged influence over the Old Continent’s political future. The curiosity was therefore warranted.
But that is no longer: the naive curiosity has morphed into outright dread.
Europe is staring down a fierce fight between Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate who has vowed to champion the time-honoured transatlantic Alliance and “stand up to dictators,” and Donald Trump, the Republican candidate who has said he would “encourage” Russia to do “whatever they want” with countries that fail to meet NATO’s spending target. For most Europeans, the choice is a no-brainer. Then again, it’s not Europeans who are voting.
A few weeks ago, Brussels was rather relaxed about the contest. Harris, buoyed by a momentum fuelled by Joe Biden’s shocking withdrawal, was enjoying a solid advantage in most battleground states. Harris and her surrogates were relishing the boost: they leveraged pop-culture memes, filled stadiums with supporters and adopted a tongue-in-cheek approach to dismiss Republicans as “weird.” Her performance in the September debate was widely praised, making her the bookies’ favourite to become the 47th president of the United States.
Then things changed, the fervour evaporated and the tone darkened. Harris switched to calling Trump a “fascist.”
Now, five days away from the election, we find ourselves with an impossibly deadlocked battle. Harris and Trump are virtually tied in all swing states. The margin between the candidates is less than one percentage point in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and North Carolina, while Trump has a small edge in Georgia and Arizona. Pollsters say they’ve never seen anything like this.
Until now, Harris’ safest path to the White House has been the so-called “Blue Wall” made up of Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10). Altogether, the three states would take the Democrat to 270 votes, the bare minimum to win nationwide. But her lead in the “Blue Wall,” which was consistent since she entered the race, has simply disappeared, giving Trump a realistic chance of swiping the region as he unexpectedly died in 2016. The Economist says the race is a “dead heat.” The New York Times calls it “extraordinarily tight.”
In other words, anything can happen.
This absolute unpredictability is driving the EU up the wall. The prospect of having Trump, a man with a well-documented distaste for the multilateral system, back in the White House is the stuff of nightmares for officials and diplomats in Brussels, who fear the mercurial billionaire will leave Ukraine out in the cold, slap indiscriminate tariffs on every possible import and abandon (again) the Paris Agreement, killing it off. And that’s just for starters.
But there’s something more profound feeding the anxiety. In the wake of the first Trump presidency, the EU began developing a strategy of “strategic autonomy” to ensure the bloc would be shielded against the whimsical ups and downs of Washington DC. The idea, fervently promoted by President Emmanuel Macron of France, gradually gained followers, became mainstream and inspired new policies to, for example, foster homegrown green tech, promote the production of semiconductors, and crack down on China’s distorting practices.
Overall, though, the balance is underwhelming. The EU remains intrinsically dependent on global dynamics, be it for trade, energy, technology, environment or security. As the world’s largest economy, the US plays a magnified role in these dynamics and can determine which way the pendulum swings, bringing wealth into some corners and wreaking havoc in others.
“We cannot leave the security of Europe in the hands of voters in Wisconsin every four years,” said Benjamin Haddad, France’s EU affairs minister, in a recent media appearance, with disarming honesty.
Although Harris is the preferred choice for most EU countries (some exceptions include Hungary, where Viktor Orbán is keeping “several bottles of champagne” to celebrate Trump’s victory), the Democrat hasn’t shown a particularly special interest in Europe beyond her broad objective to keep democratic allies together in the face of authoritarianism. American elections have become increasingly inward-looking, almost parochial: foreign policy barely registers in the discourse and, when it does, it’s about Russia, Ukraine, China or the Middle East.
It’s fair to say the EU’s obsession with the US elections is an unrequited affair. We care, we dread, we despair, but they don’t. America will always march first, regardless of who occupies the White House. At best, the EU can hope to catch up and play the game. At worst, it can be left on the ground, battered and bruised, struggling to get back on its trembling feet. |
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America decides, Europe awaits
