By Jorge Liboreiro
Donald J. Trump has been elected the 47th president of the United States of America.
It is, by all possible standards, a stunning achievement for a man who has been convicted by a court of law, impeached on two separate occasions, refused to concede defeat and accused of fomenting a violent insurrection on the US Capitol – a track record that, in another time, would have been a no-go.
But the American people, sovereign in their choice, thought otherwise and decided to give the billionaire a second chance at the top of the world’s most powerful nation. The victory wasn’t exactly a shock result as the polls leading up to Election Day had portrayed an impossibly tight battle between him and Kamala Harris, suggesting that anything could happen.
Still, pollsters and observers were astonished by the sweeping nature of his triumph: the Republican appears to have secured the seven battleground states and left Harris with nothing to cling onto – not even Michigan. Trump prevented the exodus of white women the Harris campaign was betting on, overperformed among Hispanic voters (a key Demographic constituency) and drew in masses of Gen Z men, whose politics are being shaped by online engagements that escape the mainstream discourse. As things stand, Trump is poised to become the first Republican in 20 years to win both the Electoral College and the popular vote. Truly, a home run.
In Europe, the news was met with studied correctness. The messages issued by EU leaders were eerily similar, congratulating the candidate on his victory and expressing hope that transatlantic relations will be strengthened, while underscoring the need for Europe to stand on its own two feet.
“We will work towards a more united, stronger, more sovereign Europe in this new context,” said Emmanuel Macron after a phone call with Olaf Scholz.
“Europe can take responsibility by standing together,” said Ursula von der Leyen. “The future of Europe is in our hands. We have to act now.”
Viktor Orbán was unabashedly bombastic and declared a “much-needed victory for the world.”
Behind the scenes, diplomats sound franker and acknowledge the likelihood of political turbulences for EU-US relations. After all, Trump is a man who has displayed an unapologetic contempt towards the rules-based multilateral system in which the EU, as a supranational entity, is heavily imbued. Diplomats and officials argue that, this time around, the bloc is better equipped to cope with Trump. “We’re prepared for any bumps that might appear, it’s not our first rodeo,” one said.
This time, though, the rodeo looks much more different.
When Trump unexpectedly defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016, Brussels was caught completely off guard and offered a hastily put, case-by-case reaction to the endless twists and turns coming from his tempestuous White House. Trade flows suffered. Climate action suffered. Diplomacy suffered. But the bloc made it through the storm – some say, emerging more united.
Today, there’s a brutal war raging at the EU’s very doorstep that threatens the security of the entire continent. There’s a painful economic slowdown stoking serious fears of irreversible de-industrialisation. There’s weaponisation of irregular migration by state actors. There’s an aggressive China willing to launch commercial retaliation. There’s a fractured landscape pierced by far-right politics that complicates consensus.
The outlook is so bleak that Macron has warned: “Europe is mortal, it can die.”
Trump is a new factor in this grim equation. The across-the-board tariffs he’s promised to impose on foreign goods could wreak untold havoc on the EU’s export-reliant economy. His no-holds-barred policy on China could force Beijing to redirect trade and flood the bloc with more low-cost, heavily subsidies products. His pledge to promote America’s fossil fuel industries could be the last nail in the coffin of the Paris Agreement. His transactional approach to NATO could undermine the alliance and leave Eastern Europe unprotected. Ukraine could soon be deprived of America’s high-tech weapons and be unable to protect its cities against Russia.
All of these are, of course, hypothetical scenarios based on things that Trump has said or done on the campaign trail. Trump is, by nature, unpredictable and unbound, so the doomsday guesses we’re making today might be outmatched by the announcements of tomorrow.
Should we panic? Or should we remain composed? Europe might have no choice but to do both. |
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Should we panic?
