By Jorge Liboreiro & Mared Gwyn Jones
The European Union has kicked off the electoral race – officially.
In the span of a week, the bloc’s two largest parties have made their moves to position themselves, both in political and PR terms, ahead of the elections of the European Parliament, scheduled to take place between 6 and 9 June. Up for grabs will be 720 seats in the hemicycle and four top jobs, of which the European Commission presidency is the crown jewel.
Over the weekend, the Party of European Socialists (PES) gathered in Rome to pitch “the Europe we want: social, democratic, sustainable.” From Spain’s Pedro Sánchez to Germany’s Olaf Scholz, leader after leader sang praises of social democracy and claimed authorship of the main policy responses to back-to-back crises the bloc has faced in the past few years, like the European Green Deal, the €750-billion recovery fund, the joint procurement of COVID-19 vaccines and the fiscal support to cushion energy bills. They also spoke at length about labour rights, good-quality jobs, fair taxation and feminism. All this, they said, proves socialism is still alive and kicking.
The big celebration, however, was tinged with an ominous feeling from start to finish: virtually every representative who took the stage seized the moment to issue a stark warning about the ascent of extreme-right populists across the bloc, as seen in France, Germany, Portugal, Sweden and others.
But this electoral rise is not what the socialists actually dread, as it’s something we’ve seen before. What is really – and I mean, really – fuelling their inner fears is the gradual rapprochement between the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), the hard-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, and the far-right Identify and Democracy (ID). Italy, with its three-party government, is indisputable evidence of this increasingly blurred line, socialists warned.
“The far right is growing all over Europe, in many places supported by conventional right that is imitating its arguments and populist techniques,” Sánchez told the audience. “The very soul of Europe is at risk. And once again, it’s up to us, the social democrats, to defeat that threat.”
The congress closed with the election by acclamation of Nicolas Schmit as lead candidate, a relatively low-profile choice that reflects the socialist resignation to an all-but-guaranteed second position. (In case you’re wondering “Nicolas who?!”, don’t worry: we have you covered.)
A few days later, the EPP got together in Bucharest to assert itself as the victorious family. Latest polls put the group in pole position, with 181 seats against 140 for the socialists. The gap is just too narrow to close in less than three months, and the conservatives know it well.
That’s why the EPP congress had a strong agenda-setting character, with heads of state and government underlining the issues they intend to prioritise in the next five years: competitiveness, defence and border control. Odes to farmers were repeated and the Green Deal, while not repudiated, was firmly framed through an economic prism to show Europe's industry has a place in Europe’s transition. Migration featured heavily in the speeches, with the party’s manifesto evoking Rwanda-style plans for offshoring.
In the end, EPP delegates elected, to no-one’s surprise, Ursula von der Leyen as their lead candidate, consolidating her status as the frontrunner. With Schmit unable to match her credentials and reputation, the contest effectively becomes a one-horse race.
“Our peaceful and united Europe is being challenged like never before by populists, by nationalists, by demagogues, whether it's the far-right or the far-left,” the Commission president said in Bucharest. “The goal is the same, they want to trample on our values and they want to destroy our Europe, and we the EPP will never let that happen.”
Still, not everything was flowers and applause. Von der Leyen was elected with 400 votes in favour and 89 against. Mysteriously, about 300 eligible delegates did not cast a ballot. The margin exposes the ideological cracks left by von der Leyen’s transformative mandate, which further deepened European integration and strengthened the Commission’s grip on power. Her way of governing has alienated some of her fellow conservatives, who see her as overly forward-looking.
In a scathing letter published ahead of the congress, Les Républicains, the EPP’s French faction, denounced von der Leyen’s “technocratic drift,” “anti-nuclear dogmas” and “de-growth policies.”
“A candidate of Mr Macron and not the right, she has continuously left the European majority drift towards the left,” wrote Eric Ciotti, president of Les Républicains. The Slovenian delegation also came out against her re-election bid, dismissing her “weak” leadership and green agenda.
An astute politician and skilled negotiator, von der Leyen is aware of the treacherous road she faces. If EU leaders nominate her for a second term, as seems likely, her fate will rest in the hands of MEPs, who will have the final say. In Rome, socialists made it clear they would ask for concessions in exchange for their support. But if she tilts too much to the left, her own party will revolt and blow away the house of cards. The far-right shadow will loom heavily, as progressives will demand a strict cordon sanitaire while conservatives flirt with possible alliances.
The outcome of that closed-door bargaining won’t be known until mid-September, at the earliest. For the time being, let’s sit back and enjoy the race. We have 90 days to go.
ELECTIONS HANDBOOK What countries will vote first in the EU elections? Is postal voting allowed? When will we know the results? Here’s the practical guide with everything you need to know.
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And just like that, the race is on
