By Jorge Liboreiro
And just like that… Brussels is back to work.
The first week of September marks la rentrée in the Belgian capital, the synchronised comeback of freshly energised, glowingly tanned eurocrats to their spotless offices. The sun is shining bright and temperatures are hovering around 30 degrees, creating the numbing illusion that the holidays are not yet over. But they definitely are.
The European Union has now entered the final push before the elections to the European Parliament, scheduled to be held between 6 and 9 June 2024. The next nine months – actually eight after subtracting the campaign frenzy – are the last chance that policymakers will have to wrap up the job they started back in July 2019, when Ursula von der Leyen became president of the European Commission and kicked off the current legislature.
The to-do list is rather formidable and includes some pieces of legislation that could drastically transform certain aspects of EU policy, with no turning back.
Let’s take Ukraine, the country that has dominated the conversation for the last year and a half. The EU is fast approaching the moment to decide what it really wants to do with Kyiv’s application to join the 27-member bloc. The European Commission is set to release its enlargement report sometime in October, with a chapter dedicated to Ukraine and the progress it has made to fulfil a series of pre-conditions. These findings will be then sent to EU leaders, who will debate whether to open accession negotiations or ask for further work.
Kyiv has, repeatedly and unambiguously, insisted that official talks, which are split into 35 thematic chapters, should begin before the end of the year, an ambitious timeline that makes some people in Brussels break out in a cold sweat. While financial and military support for Ukraine remains firm, the idea of welcoming a new member state of almost 40 million citizens, a mighty agricultural sector and an expensive reconstruction bill has proven much harder to digest.
In fact, some leaders, like German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron, have warned that the bloc must reform itself before expanding eastward. For his part, European Council President Charles Michel has upped the ante and put 2030 as the deadline for enlargement. Expect to see these political-philosophical discussions intensify in the coming months.
Another thorny issue on the table: what to do with the assets of the Russian Central Bank that have been immobilised as a result of economic sanctions.
Brussels is bent on using the reserves – estimated at over €200 billion across EU territory – to help finance the rebuilding of Ukraine. On paper, the plan is to impose a tax on the windfall profits generated by these assets and then re-direct the proceedings into the EU budget. Although the initiative is yet to be translated into a concrete proposal, the mere thought of it has raised extremely serious concerns among legal scholars, financial experts and even the European Central Bank, who fear meddling with public assets will trigger market instability and damage the euro’s credibility.
It is, quite simply, uncharted territory. (But so were most of the major decisions adopted since 24 February 2022.)
Money will no doubt be an overarching theme until the elections. The EU is in the process of revising both its multi-annual budget, with a proposed €100-billion top-up, and its long-standing fiscal rules, which have been rendered obsolete by back-to-back crises. Negotiations on both files are expected to be bitter and fierce, particularly regarding the fiscal framework, a controversial topic that has the potential to revive the old North vs South divide and make the gloves come off.
Also on the table, another make-or-break reform: migration policy. After years of avoiding Pandora's Box, the bloc appears ready to tackle head-on what is arguably the most explosive subject on the agenda. Following a major breakthrough in early June, member states and MEPs are knee-deep in negotiations to wrap up the complex legislation. While Poland and Hungary frontally oppose the measure, the voting rules of qualified majority open a window of opportunity, even if narrow.
But there’s more – much more: sanctions on Russian diamonds, the Nature Restoration Law, the Renewable Energy Directive, the Artificial Intelligence Act, the Net-Zero Industry Act, the Critical Raw Materials Act, the Media Freedom Act and an inter-institutional ethics body are among the pending tasks awaiting resolution.
And if you think you might have extra time in your hands, you can always add to the mix a fresh attempt to complete the long-stalled EU-Mercosur trade deal, which has the (dis)honour of being stuck in the bloc's to-do list for the last two decades.
Fasten your seatbelts.
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| | |  SUSPICIOUS DEBRIS
The West is on high alert after Romania said the debris found on its territory possibly belonged to a Russian drone launched against Ukraine. The admission, which came after two days of empathic denials, has raised fears the war could spiral out of control and spread beyond Ukraine’s borders. Meanwhile, speaking before the European Parliament, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg shut down those who complain Ukraine’s counter-offensive is moving too slowly and urged allies to stand by Kyiv “not only in good times but also in bad times.”
MEET ME IN VLADIVOSTOK
Another issue raising fears among NATO allies is the possible meeting in Vladivostok between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. The encounter, which is yet to be officially confirmed, suggests Putin’s strategy has failed and Western sanctions have worked, Mark Gitenstein, the US Ambassador to the EU, told Euronews in an interview. But what lies beneath is less clear. In an analysis, Giulia Carbonaro attempts to decipher what Kim Jong-un might want from Putin – and how the favour can be returned.
NEW DELHI BOUND
Speaking of gatherings, leaders of the Group of 20 (G20) are getting ready to mix and mingle in New Delhi to discuss global trade, economic cooperation and development aid. One dignitary, though, will be conspicuously missing: Chinese President Xi Jinping has opted out, a glaring absence that analysts link to mourning tensions in China-India relations. Verónica Romano brings you everything you need to know about |
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