By Jorge Liboreiro
It’s official: elections in Europe have gone wild. With each passing poll, it becomes increasingly harder to predict the results in advance – or even have an inkling of what’s to come. In Spain, the socialists defied ominous expectations and held onto power against all odds. In Poland, the opposition overcame a remarkably toxic campaign to secure a governing majority. And now, in the Netherlands, the far right has triumphed for the first time in history.
The astonishing victory of Geert Wilders has left Europe shell-shocked, to put it mildly. His Party for Freedom (PVV) secured 23.5% of all votes and 37 seats in the House of Representatives, putting it comfortably ahead of the left-wing joint list (GL/PvdA) led by Frans Timmermans, which amassed 15% of votes and 25 seats. The difference between the winner and the runner-up is incontrovertible and make it impossible to deny Wilders a chance to, at least, form an executive.
But this is the Netherlands, the country of one thousand parties and chimerical coalitions, so nothing, we insist, nothing can be taken for granted at this stage. The results, however, are enough to digest and draw a handful of conclusions, particularly in view of next year’s European elections.
First, the Dutch bombshell shows that each country is a microcosm, where voters behave mostly detached from the international context that surrounds them. Domestic issues always come first. In the case of the Netherlands, the dramatic convergence of two hot-button topics – a surge in asylum seekers and a lack of affordable housing – provided fertile ground for dissatisfaction and contestation against mainstream parties, which were perceived as enablers of the status quo.
Pieter Omtzigt, a former Christian Democrat, founded the New Social Contract (NSC) in a matter of weeks and dominated the campaign with his pitch for a centrist alternative that mixed ideas from across the political spectrum. His party seemed like the breath of fresh air the country needed after 13 years with the same prime minister. But Omtzig raised eyebrows when he refused to clearly say if he would like to assume the top job, a jarring reluctance for a man whose face is plastered across posters. In the end, Omtzigt’s non-conformist brand secured 20 seats, below predictions. The outcome is “unexpected and complicated,” he said. “All options are open.”
Second, the Netherlands is yet another reminder of the enduring allure of the far right. Over the past decades, extreme parties have attempted to capitalise on Europe’s unending succession of crises, from the 2007-2008 financial meltdown to the coronavirus pandemic. The cost-of-living crisis triggered by the energy crunch and record-breaking inflation have brought populists ammunition on a silver platter. Anger, frustration, despair, a sense of abandonment – these are feelings that can easily fuel narratives of revanchism, insecurity and declining sovereignty. The greater hardship citizens face, the more chances the far right has to re-invent its agenda, change its slogans and perpetuate friction points in the mind of anxious voters.
“The voter has said: ‘We are fed up,’” Wilders said, vowing to return “the Netherlands to the Dutch.”
This leads us to our third conclusion. The lasting popularity of the far right has set in motion a phenomenon of normalisation that is gradually blurring the lines between parties of extreme ideas and parties of traditional conservatism. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is a prime example of the trend. Meloni was elected on an anti-migration, anti-EU, anti-establishment manifesto that sent shockwaves across the continent. But once in office, the PM adopted a pragmatic stance and projected an image of a level-headed leader with whom cooperation was possible. In recent months, Meloni has been received in Paris, Berlin and London as a European stateswoman.
Admittedly, Wilders and Meloni aren’t perfect parallels. The Dutch firebrand spent his political life rallying against Islam, the Quran, headscarves and mosques in such a vitriolic manner that he had to be granted police protection. He has repeatedly attacked the European Union and called for a “Nexit” referendum. High taxes, state regulation, dual citizens, the Senate, climate policies, foreign students and culture subsidies have all become targets of his furious criticism.
But the “Meloni effect,” if we can call it that, ended up benefitting him. In a bid to expand his electoral base, Wilders toned down his strident rhetoric, including his calls for “de-Islamisation” of the Netherlands, and pivoted to bread-and-butter issues like housing, consumer prices and healthcare access. The makeover paid off spectacularly and forced the other parties, like the liberal VVD, to concede that a coalition with the far right was now an option firmly on the table.
“We want to govern,” Wilders said. “And we will govern.”
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Meloni was elected on an anti-migration, anti-EU, anti-establishment manifesto that sent shockwaves across the continent
