By Jorge Liboreiro
The far right is soaring. The far right is conquering. The far right is about to take over the European Parliament and transform it forever.
This is the narrative we’ve been hearing for the past few months to the point that the projection has become a quasi-incontrovertible fact. But these are EU elections and nothing’s decided until the last ballot in the last country is counted.
This week, we offered a counter-argument to spice up the debate: in an exclusive pan-European survey conducted by Ipsos across 26,000 respondents in 18 member states, Euronews reveals the grand coalition between the European People’s Party (EPP), Socialists & Democrats (S&D) and the liberals of Renew Europe has a slim chance of surviving the political earthquake. The three parties, which make up the traditional “grand coalition” of pro-European forces in the hemicycle, would get 55,3% of the seats, despite a plunge for Renew, who would fall from 102 today seats to 85 in June.
If we add the Greens, who have often lent their support to back the main proposals of this mandate, the “super grand coalition” would amass almost 63% of all seats, meaning 453 out of the 720 MEPs who will be elected. While this broad alliance would likely be pierced by dissenting voices here and there, the estimated numbers would be solid enough to advance legislation and ensure a consistent degree of predictability in the next five years.
By contrast, the hard-right European Conservatives and Reformists Group (ECR) would secure 76 seats (up from 68 now) and the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) would snatch 81 (up from 59), a quite significant boost for each. Together, they would control about 37% of the Parliament – not exactly what you’d call an all-out takeover. Even if ECR and ID were to lure the EPP into occasional alliances to bring down green policies, as they did (and failed) with the Nature Restoration Law, they would command 46,4% of all seats.
This is where things get really interesting: the final balance in Strasbourg might very well rest on the non-affiliated parties, those who, for various reasons, do not belong to any of the established groups and are therefore entitled to reduced speaking time. But this doesn’t mean they are politically neutral, far from it. Our poll estimates the next Parliament would have 68 non-attached MEPs: 33 left-leaning, 28 right-leaning and seven centrist-leaning.
The arithmetic would work as a sort of Rubik’s Cube, with shifting pieces offering shifting outcomes. Conservatives could eventually win the upper hand: the EPP (177 seats), ID (81), ECR (76) and right-leaning non-attached (28) would produce a razor-thin majority of 362 lawmakers. This would be enough to put the brakes on legislation seen as overly progressive or pro-integrationist.
However, given that MEPs sometimes break ranks (or simply don’t show up to vote), keeping this “super right-wing coalition” intact would be an arduous, down-to-the-wire exercise. The Anglo-Saxon concept of “whips” never took hold in Strasbourg so it’s not a surprise to see lawmakers voting against the official line that their party has decided. In some cases, one single amendment is enough to galvanise the mavericks and throw everything into disarray.
All in all, the Euronews poll depicts a legislature that will be rowdy and cacophonous, with an invigorated right pushing against an outraged left, and vice versa. Ambitious bills will be put to the very test, magnified many times over until full distortion. Still, amid the precarious state of affairs, the odds appear to favour the “grand coalition,” even if its members would be the first to agree they have all seen better days.
EURONEWS ON AIR Our exclusive survey capped off Euronews On Air, a live event in Brussels that brought together policymakers, multinationals and civil society. On-stage interviews with Charles Michel, president of the European Council, and Margaritis Schinas, vice-president of the European Commission, kicked off the big occasion, followed by our weekly talk show, Brussels, My Love?, and the Big Question, with Barclays’ Francesco Ceccato.
AND MUCH MORE! Check out our brand-new polls centre, where you can track projections at the EU and national levels, and create your own coalitions.
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The ‘grand coalition’ holds on to dear life
